Man O' War

 

No matter what one thinks about Trump joining the Israel/Iran war, no matter the outcome, it was impressive proof of American military technology, capability, planning, and, notwithstanding Tulsi Gabbard as DNI, intelligence-gathering. As Bibi said, it’s unlikely any other nation could have pulled it off. If nothing else, it triggered a Big, Beautiful Gloat. 

Here, from the New York Times, with no paywall, is a comprehensive, behind-the-scenes background on the runup. Both “sides” will find items of interest.

Impressive as it was, we must wonder: had Trump’s dreamed-of, watch-this-Vlad-and-Kim military parade not been so humiliating, had it not made him look so embarrassingly weak, would he have rushed to enter the war? Given skin thin as single-ply tissue and his need to appear superhero strong, who knows? For context, Trump once bleated, “Now that Obama’s numbers are in tailspin, watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.”

According to that NYT article, he was impressed with how Israel’s attack was “playing” on Fox “News.” Was that his metric? How am I playing? Slurping Kool-Aid like lemonade under a heat dome, Little Marco said it’s “irrelevant” whether we had intelligence indicating intent to make nukes. That’s alarming.

Has Iran’s nuclear capability been “totally obliterated,” as Trump said, “degraded” as Joint Chief’s Chairman Caine said, or, as JD Vance put it “delayed.” (Vance wins). The regional and global ramifications remain to be seen. It could turn out to be the best decision Trump has ever made, or, like George Bush’s, another Iraq. Let’s hope for the former.

Unlike ill-considered tariffs, threatened, deployed, reversed, and reversed again, wars can’t be undone. The plans were brilliant, but can we trust that it wasn’t another incidence of Trump’s “gut” telling him what to do? Did he take talk-show host Pete Hegseth’s advice? (See that NYT article, above.) Would the generals he fired have urged a different path?

Nothing about Trump’s prior behavior (Covid!) instills confidence that his decision reflected deep thought and thorough consideration of options and consequences. We’ll never know the outcome, had he pursued the diplomacy to which he once seemed committed; returning, in essence, to the Obama-brokered agreement he reflexively ended on Day One the first. Because Obama.

Iran claims to have moved all nuclear material and equipment away before the attack. According to that NYT article, some insiders felt Trump’s blabbery gave them reason and time to do it.

Before the attack, Trump produced dishonestly edited testimony by DNI Gabbard, on the outs for casting doubt on whether Iran was making nuclear weapons; inaccurately implying she said they were “weeks away.” This is how it works: tell Trump what he wants to hear or become gone. Praise, don’t challenge. When it comes to making decisions about war, that’s hypo-optimal.

Nor is it desirable, assuming it’s ideal for Americans to be behind a war of choice, to have a “president” who makes it clear that he cares about only half the country, calling the other half America-hating “lunatics,” punishing them at every opportunity. It makes impartial reflection difficult.

To those saying Trump broke his promise not to be a war president, based on which many voted for him, JD Vance, doppleganging Bill Clinton, said, “It depends on what the definition of war is.”

The risk of increased attacks on America, cyber and living flesh, has undoubtedly risen after Trump’s military action, and the timing isn’t good. He’s disbanded the team responsible for cybersecurity and put in charge of counterterrorism a 22-year-old with zero experience who, until his appointment, had been a gardener and grocery clerk. That ought to worry even the most MAGA of MAGAs. It’s almost as if Trump intentionally tore down the wall, if not for Khamenei, then for Putin. It would explain the inexplicable.

The final words of Trump’s post-strike speech were somewhere between his suborning of election interference “Russia, if you’re listening ...” and a tipsy toast at a wedding. “I want to just thank everybody, in particular, God. I want to just say we love you God and we love our great military, protect them...”

From the least godly president ever, who nevertheless has managed to convince Christian supporters of the opposite, it was unconvincing and weird. But, as someone who all but admits he doesn’t pray privately, he must have no idea how to do it. “God, if you’re listening...” But maybe he deserves a pass on that, too. He was talking to MAGA, not God.

If the announced ceasefire between Israel and Iran is lasting and becomes a model for the Middle East, Trump might get that Nobel Peace Prize after all. A day after its announcement, it was looking shaky. “PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT,” he posted. We’ll see. If I knew how, I’d pray for lasting peace.